hypersoniq's Blog

SB is a no-go, can't get any improvements.

on to the next set of projects...

up now is the PRNG synch for PA mid 3/4, and some paper testing of a "focused forecast" for powerball... too complex for backtesting right now, lost a bit of ambition on the SB bust...

I have to start PA mid testing clean-sheet because I don't normally track CPU draws. seed fortesting will start at the number value of the date+time (also known as NOW() in excel) adding 13:10 as a start and working forward.

I will be using VBA for the RNG, calling it in the sheet as a custom function. I will use several functions at a time for streamlined testing, not holding my breath for any great results, but gotta try

I put up a powerball sheet on my page

important... IT DOESN"T DO ANYTHING YET, it uses data all the way back to 1997 and it's small in size

the only "pick" it even attempts to make is the raw result of FORECAST

there are 4 sheets...

Worksheet 1. Draw Data

  column A = draw date

  columns B-F = white ball draw data SORTED (WS1-WS5)

  column G = powerball 

  column H-L = white ball draw data DRAW ORDER (WD1-WD5)

  column I = day of the week (wed./sat.)

  column J = draw number

  old draws are at the top, add new draws to the bottom...

Worksheet 2. Frequency

  column A = number (1/55 covers PB 1-42 also)

  column B = total count (how many times appeared in the game whether PB or WB)

  column C-G = sort order freq.. how many times each number hit in each position (SORT ORDER)

  column H = powerball frequency

  column I-M = draw order freq..

      row 58 contains the largest number of each column, this is for conditional formatting to allow the highest one to be highlighted.

Worksheet 3. Statistics

a look at some statistics for the game history

Worksheet 4. Cash Value Calculator

enter the data requested in the green cells (MUSL advertised cash value), see what you can actually expect if taking the cash value

don't know what else it's good for at this point, but it might be a good start for something...

uses formulas extended to row 2000 for fast recalcs (no need for F9 in this one), after row 2000 on history sheet, formulas will need to be changed... that's a LONG way off

enjoy

still looking for improvements, not finding results...

also wondering how to apply something similar to a 5/39 gamelike PA Cash5

and ultimately to the only game I actually play, powerball...

maybe I need a completely new idea... I'm out of them at the moment...

to copy from the old cliche...

I have good news and bad news...

the GOOD news is that ALL formulas have been fixed with some help and the keen eyes of other LP excellers

the BAD news is the hits went away... first sheet corrected went from 64 hits down to 8...

this fails both long term cost/winnings AND cyclic hit rates.

Usually I would stop here, write off the system as YAFA (yet another failed attempt), but there must be more progress that can be made... the concept still seems valid... glad I never got to the part where I buy tickets for it... I'm riding this one out a bit longer, going down with the ship...

I will save a version with the bad formulas, false hope is better than none ;-)

these picks are from each of the 4 SB sheet variants...

good for tonight in PA...

L2H_FH = 4-4-9
H2L_FH = 4-4-9
L2H_RH = 4-4-0
H2L_RH = 4-4-9

see how this works... the 4 systems picked the same first 4 digits, and the same last digit 3/4 times....

you could play this twice and be done.... play the most frequent(449), play the oddball in the group (440), play heavier on the 449, or skip it altogether.

the number of repeat picks like this ensure the system will remain cheap to play ;-)

Here is how I envision version 2....

one workbook with 2 sheets,

sheet one.......

State Draw History

this will contain the draw history as compact as possible

col.A Draw Number

B. Date

C. Combo

D. first digit

E. second digit

F. third digit

G. First vertical pair

H. Second vertical pair

I. third vertical pair

and that's it... the FORMULAE will contain the magic, since we will get faster recalcs that way

PLUS, it will be EASY to get the state's data in for ALL the state games for each individual user.

(smaller files means I can post more than one state to my homepage, after deleting the original backtest versions)

sheet two...

User Interactive Form!

this will do several things... I am thinking of having the following abilities

1.allow you to update the next draw in the database (sheet 1) from an easy form

2. allow you to pick from several options

  a. the original SB pick where it breaks ties low to high, using full history (L2H_FH)

  b. the SB pick where ties are broken High to Low, using full history (H2L_FH)

  c. the SB pick using a shorter version of history, rolling 1800-2000 draws (L2H_RH) & (H2L_RH)

3. will show counts for 0-9 in each position for each of the 4 above so you can see where the numbers came from

ok, what will be lost doing it this way...

    1. no ability to count previous hits, no backtesting

    2. no at-a-glance tally of formula changes over time

what will be gained...

    1. smaller file

    2. faster calculations

    3. 4 sets of numbers to pick from (there WILL be duplicates, maybe that could be an indicator of a good pick?)

    4. ease of use for those not keen on excel experimentation

now the request...

Any other ideas or requests to go into version 2?

After V2 is released, I am moving on to trying to apply this to the PA Cash5 (whole new laundry list of problems to overcome) and eventually the ultimate target (for me, anyway) powerball...

thanks hareless for sending the sheet!

41 hits in 3,814 draws!

(btw, hareless, I fixed up the formula to get rid of the -1's for more accurate results, e-mailed it back to you)

I'm glad it wasn't just a fluke with PA data...

thanks to all who continue to experiment, refine and tweak the system!

best of luck in upcoming 2006, let's break the bank!

Massachusetts evening Numbers Game (pick 4)
29 years, expected 3 hits (needed to pass), got 13  !!!!!!!

cost to play $10,140
amount won $unknown, pari-mutuel
net profit $???

now the reality check
Last Hit 10/10/2005 1-5-4-0
years missed  1976, 1980-1982, 1984-1988, 1990-1993, 1995-1997, 2000-2002, 2004
another state's data appears to work with the SB system!

so far I have 5,000 draws calculated (a bit less than halfway).

Hard to tell the cyclic hit rate since MASS is pari-mutuel, but 7 straight hits so far (4/4) seems to be pretty good... so far...

thread is here... https://www.lotterypost.com/thread/125600

sheets available here... http://home.comcast.net/~hypersoniq

they are the full backtest versions, 5+MB each (slow d/l for dial-up)

a more compact "production" version will be made freely available when I get it done. the second version will be easier to change for other state's data.

12/29/2005

PA evening

pick3 = 0-6-2

pick4 = 2-1-1-9

after a lackluster first test (although long droughts can be expected) here goes nuttin'...

Pennsylvania Lottery 

pick3 eve 7-0-1

pick4 eve 1-6-0-1

12/27/2005 

pick 3 evening = 0-0-4

pick 4 evening = 8-0-5-4

finally fixed the logic...

results overall

28 years, expected 28 hits, got 64 hits!

cost to play $9,881

amount won $32,000

net profit $22,119

best year = 1980 with 10 straight hits!

years without a hit 1983, 1993, 1994, 1995, 1997, 1999, 2003

last hit 2/12/2005  2-7-0

I noticed that the 90's usually represent the downfall of most systems. I wonder why?

in all, this system is a winner, save for cyclic hit rate. SoniQ BOOM is a.k.a. the Precursor Announcer system.

I finally have something worth giving to the community, but it's not ready just yet, the sheet is COMPLEX! the process of adapting to a new state is also complex, time-consuming and computationally intense. Tonight I will adapt to PA evening big 4. IF that goes as well, I am ready to take this to the LP community for open refinement (sheet will be on my website, all 6 megs of it, when ready...)

I am not starting off with a hairbrained concept (like I have countless times in the past), I have formed a theory, and tested it to a system that passes basic backtesting... I will need fresh eyes to look at it, to pick up win opportunities I missed, to double check logic... I think this can help everyone.

anyone up to the challenge?

well, there is a bad bit of bias in the beginning, but 164 hits versus the nearest system's 27 over 18 years is a step in the RIGHT direction... all this for a single shot straight system, wonder what I can tweak to make it better, it fails on one point... cyclic hits, several periods of a few years where no hits, but some years had more than 2 or 3 straight hits...