Quote: Originally posted by Lucky Loser on Jun 12, 2016
Thank you, MonEl, for obliging me...honestly. I do agree that a 'fresh' prediction list for every draw is logical but, what I'm doing here is establishing a baseline for an unchanged list just as I did in the link I provided to another similar experiment. Difference is that your betting strategy will be applied and I believe you're doing the $.50 6-way boxed + str8 option. You did fudge a bit with (25) numbers when the original model touted is based on (20) but, I'll meet you and use the (25) from the random list. Fair? Also, since Virginia does offer 'pair play' on Pick3 and Texas doesn't, I'll simply apply the strategy to the very last (6) draws on this state as it offers more ways to win something. I also see that as fair and please refer to their prize page to validate my accuracy. Lastly, you didn't disclose a bankroll amount to start with so I'll use $80 like I did before. We begin on 6/09 and end on 6/11, okay. The winning numbers are as follows:
Day Night
6/09 215 664
6/10 980 851
6/11 542 035
Okay, # 21 on the list (215) is a boxed match for the 6/09 midday draw. So, my $80.00 - $12.50 cost = $67.50 remaining. I win the $40.00 payout which now gives me a new total of $107.50 to work with which is a $27.50 profit. Now, I'm going to 'raise them' to a $1.00 bet for the 6/09 night draw which will cost me $25.00 to play. $107.50 balance - $25.00 cost = $82.50 remaining. The night draw is a bust (664) with no matches at all so I'm out of $25.00, and, that loss cut directly into the $27.50 profit won on the first draw. In reality, I now have only a $2.50 profit to add to my original principle bankroll of $80.00 for a total of $82.50. Are you with me? Okay. For the next draw, I'm raising them again to a $2.00 bet which will cost me $50.00 to play. So, an $82.50 balance - $50.00 cost = $32.50 remaining. The strategy and list play well together on the 6/10 midday with (980) as it matched rear pairs from #19 (680) on the list and split pairs (900) from #25 on the list. Aren't you glad I didn't hold you to only the first (20) numbers?
What we have now is a $200.00 total payout for both pairs because the $1.00 prize is $50.00 for pairs...not bad at all! At this point, I add the $200.00 to my $32.50 for a new total of $232.50 to work with while recovering and capitalizing on that $25.00 previous loss. My $232.50 new balance - my original principle of $80.00 = a true profit of $152.50. These are the raw numbers. For the 6/10 night draw, I'll raise 'em again to a $4.00 bet which will cost me $100.00. Alright, $232.50 balance - $100.00 cost = $132.50 remaining and, yep, #1 on the list (857) locked in the front pairs for a $200.00 payout. Pairs is the player's best friend, trust me. The new numbers are a $132.50 last balance + the $200.00 payout for a $332.50 new bankroll. When I subtract my original $80.00 from that, my true current profit is $252.50. Next, I'm gonna push 'em again to an $8.00 bet 'cause hell, I ain't mad at NOBODY! My out of pocket here is $200.00 and that taken from the $332.50 leaves me $132.50 again.
The 6/11 midday is just plain off tha' chain!!! The list matched (254) BOXED TWICE on #12 and # 14!!! Then, #11 (742) got the rear pairs! Finally, #15 (541) zeroed in on the front pairs!! Let's count this money! At $8.00/number boxed payout, we have $1,280.00 for the two boxed hits ($640.00 X 2) and $800.00 on the pair hits ($400.00 X 2) for a total win of $2,080.00! That added to $132.50 gives me a new grand total of $2,212.50 in bankroll...and this is how MonEl rolls!! Again, when I subtract my $80.00 principle, I have made a true profit of $2,132.50 and we're talking in only a matter of (5) draws so far. This is great but, there's a caveat to it in the end. Okay, time for the last draw on 6/11 at night and I'm gonna try and take the whole dang ATM machine on a $16.00 bet!!! I'm at the top of this ladder and I'm looking back down at where I came from...$80.00. Mind you, the house has been doing all the heavy lifting this whole time via my profit.
My cost to run the list now on a $16 bet is $400.00 which is about +- 1/5 of my total bankroll. This is completely doable as the house is using its' own money...make or break. Unfortunately, the last draw produced nothing on any positions (035) so I'm taking a profit hit as the house recovers $400.00 of its' payouts to me. As such, my $2,212.50 bankroll - the $400.00 cost and loss leaves me with a balance of $1812.50 start to finish. The 'clean' and true profit realized here is $1,732.50 ($1,812.50 - $80.00 principle of my own money). Either way, we're talking about a lot of money made here with a list that's random, according to MonEl, and applying a very serious wagering strategy that could've also went very wrong. It's easy to look at what we did here and say, "Man he actually only spent $12.50 to make all that money and just progressively betted his way to two grand!!" However, if we examine the numbers very closely early on, we can easily see where had I lost again after my $50.00 bet @ $2.00, I would've had to 'regressive bet' back down to $1.00 because I didn't have enough to cover the next $100.00 progressive bet with the $32.50 balance. This thing can go either way and there's no guarantee on how much of win will be realized at any point during the betting in this game. Then, the fact that I used a state which pays on pairs helped A BUNCH because if we deduct all the pairs which totaled $1,000.00 alone, we then have a true profit of $732.50. The alternate list of self picked numbers also has some hits in it. It started off well with two split pairs matched (235) and (245) on the 6/09 midday and you can analyze from there.
I requested the list so that I could illustrate how all the numbers actually work from a cost/return/loss financial perspective, okay. This wasn't to take a jab at you or anything like that. As you can see, our numbers vastly differ because I'm applying real time math to EACH PLAY based on what happens with the money. You seem to apply a 'blanket' scenario to the list based on guarantees...there's a big difference. Anyhow, thanks for obliging me. People that may not be good with math need to see studies like this and I honestly enjoy crunching numbers as you can see. Later.