The Powerball jackpot has rolled over. The cash jackpot is now $42.8M The advertised annuity is $88M. The average sales for an ninth drawing are $21.1M.
If ticket sales are averarge, the randomized distribution of probability of various numbers of winners is:
0 | 86.57% |
1 | 12.49% |
2 | 0.90% |
3 | 0.04% |
The long term jackpot evolution suggests the following:
Average Historical Annuity | Calculated Annuity | Calculated Cash Value Projections | Single Draw Rollover Probability | Overall Probability from baseline |
| $559,872,365.64 | $272,301,560 | 27.11% | 0.52% |
$353 | $441,106,079.08 | $214,537,957 | 37.86% | 1.92% |
$300 | $352,721,846.46 | $171,551,080 | 48.54% | 5.06% |
$245 | $286,947,519.40 | $139,560,839 | 58.39% | 10.43% |
$208 | $237,999,172.26 | $115,754,143 | 67.01% | 17.86% |
$193 | $201,572,487.33 | $98,037,528 | 74.24% | 26.65% |
$180 | $174,464,250.75 | $84,853,067 | 80.11% | 35.90% |
$159 | $154,290,674.92 | $75,041,374 | 83.89% | 44.81% |
$132 | $138,311,879.84 | $67,269,869 | 84.53% | 53.41% |
$119 | $123,018,131.70 | $59,831,546 | 85.17% | 63.19% |
$105 | $108,409,430.50 | $52,726,405 | 85.81% | 74.19% |
$92 | $94,485,776.23 | $45,954,446 | 86.46% | 86.46% |
The model is off by 5% right now.