The Powerball jackpot has rolled over. The cash jackpot is now $36M. The advertised annuity is now $74M. Eighth round jackpots sell on average, 18.6M tickets. If this is the number of tickets that sell on this drawing the randomized probability of a rollover will be as follows:
0 | 88.02% |
1 | 11.23% |
2 | 0.72% |
3 | 0.03% |
Note that the last time, in error, I posted the long term probability starting from an eighth draw and not a seventh. Thus the correct long term model function will look the same, with the numbers slightly adjusted to reflect the sales of the most recent drawing.
Average Historical Annuity | Calculated Annuity | Calculated Cash Value Projections | Single Draw Rollover Probability | Overall Probability from baseline |
| $560,086,303.07 | $272,474,418 | 27.11% | 0.40% |
$353 | $441,350,008.00 | $214,710,815 | 37.86% | 1.46% |
$300 | $352,988,094.63 | $171,723,938 | 48.54% | 3.86% |
$245 | $287,230,377.25 | $139,733,697 | 58.39% | 7.96% |
$208 | $238,294,390.80 | $115,927,001 | 67.01% | 13.63% |
$193 | $201,876,904.53 | $98,210,386 | 74.24% | 20.34% |
$180 | $174,775,513.46 | $85,025,925 | 80.11% | 27.39% |
$159 | $154,607,031.97 | $75,214,232 | 83.87% | 34.19% |
$132 | $138,608,644.76 | $67,431,233 | 84.51% | 40.77% |
$119 | $123,294,513.97 | $59,981,115 | 85.14% | 48.24% |
$105 | $108,664,639.63 | $52,863,879 | 85.79% | 56.66% |
$92 | $94,719,021.71 | $46,079,524 | 86.43% | 66.05% |
$80 | $81,457,660.23 | $39,628,051 | 87.09% | 76.41% |
$68 | $68,880,555.18 | $33,509,459 | 87.74% | 87.74% |
The model right now is showing itself being off by about 7% lower than the actual event, which is an unusally high inacurracy. Still it is intended only to give a loose idea of the probability of the jackpot becoming very large. The model ignores caps, which if I recall correctly is now set somewhere around $390M.