The Powerball jackpot has rolled over. The cash value of the jackpot is $38.8M. The advertised annuity value is $83.0M. Eighth draws average 18.4M in sales. If the number of tickets that sell in the next drawing is average then the randomized probability of various numbers of winners will be as follows:
0 | 88.16% |
1 | 11.11% |
2 | 0.70% |
3 | 0.03% |
The mixed linear/exponential model I use to suggest the probability of long term behavior of the Powerball, exclusive of reserves, caps and minimums, is operating in a region where it seems to be fairly accurate and predictive within 1 or 2 percent. It suggests the following long term probability:
Average Historical Annuity | Calculated Annuity | Calculated Cash Value Projections | Single Draw Rollover Probability | Overall Probability from baseline |
| $582,033,448.00 | $272,083,106 | 26.91% | 0.45% |
$353 | $457,761,822.38 | $213,989,864 | 37.77% | 1.69% |
$300 | $365,592,042.18 | $170,903,268 | 48.57% | 4.47% |
$245 | $297,231,558.91 | $138,946,801 | 58.53% | 9.21% |
$208 | $246,529,955.18 | $115,245,328 | 67.22% | 15.73% |
$193 | $208,925,589.35 | $97,666,420 | 74.48% | 23.41% |
$180 | $181,035,183.03 | $84,628,495 | 80.37% | 31.43% |
$159 | $160,349,426.26 | $74,958,527 | 83.93% | 39.10% |
$132 | $143,763,317.58 | $67,205,021 | 84.56% | 46.59% |
$119 | $127,885,798.48 | $59,782,759 | 85.19% | 55.10% |
$105 | $112,716,868.94 | $52,691,741 | 85.83% | 64.68% |
$92 | $98,256,528.98 | $45,931,968 | 86.48% | 75.35% |
$79 | $84,504,778.58 | $39,503,439 | 87.13% | 87.13% |
If the model continues to be accurate - generally it doesn't break down too badly unless the jackpots are very large or are relatively small - there is a better than even chance of seeing a jackpot of $144M as the advertised annuity.