The Powerball has rolled over. The cash jackpot is $32.7M, the advertised annuity jackpot is $73M. The average sales for 6th drawing is $15.9M. If this is how many tickets are sold, the probabilities for various numbers of winners will be as follows:
0 | 89.69% |
1 | 9.76% |
2 | 0.53% |
3 | 0.02% |
The mixed linear/exponential function gives the following model, ignoring caps and reserves, for jackpot evolution is as follows:
Average Jackpots | $604,123,614.19 | $267,398,977 | 26.06% | 0.44% |
$353 | $469,663,057.13 | $207,883,648 | 37.37% | 1.67% |
$300 | $371,249,969.00 | $164,323,757 | 48.65% | 4.47% |
$245 | $299,220,400.42 | $132,441,817 | 59.02% | 9.18% |
$208 | $246,501,205.78 | $109,107,091 | 67.98% | 15.56% |
$193 | $207,915,475.79 | $92,028,161 | 75.39% | 22.88% |
$173 | $179,674,176.42 | $79,527,914 | 81.32% | 30.35% |
$152 | $159,004,074.02 | $70,378,852 | 85.96% | 37.32% |
$126 | $143,875,409.86 | $63,682,558 | 85.64% | 43.42% |
$111 | $128,382,304.24 | $56,824,954 | 86.19% | 50.70% |
$99 | $113,526,196.46 | $50,249,300 | 86.74% | 58.82% |
$86 | $99,307,086.52 | $43,955,596 | 87.30% | 67.81% |
$75 | $85,724,974.43 | $37,943,841 | 87.86% | 77.68% |
$66 | $72,779,860.17 | $32,214,036 | 88.42% | 88.42% |
The model is fairly accurate right now. If it stays so, it suggests that there is about a 10% chance of hitting the cap. There is a 90% chance of not hitting the cap.