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Mega Millions - is a $1, $2, or $3 ticket the best value (EV)?
Sorry, I messed up the Just the Jackpot (JTJ) pricing. It's $3 for 2 tickets, not $1 for 1 ticket.
Comparing JTJ to regular ticket, then, we have the following equation for the equal EV / unit bet:
(2/3)(kJ)p = (1/2)(kJ)p + A/2
Therefore, J = 3A/(kp).
Comparing JTJ to Megaplier ($3) ticket, we have the following:
(2/3)(kJ)p = (1/3)(kJ)p + (3A)/3
Therefore, again, J = 3A/(kp)
To re-iterate Regular Ticket vs Megaplier:
(1/2)(kJ)p + A/2 = (1/3)(kJ)p + (3A)/3
Once again,
Jul 27, 2022, 2:19 pm - Orange71 - Mathematics Forum